Method
Pregame game predictions
- Method
m3-v0- Version
m3-v0- As of
- 2026-10-08
- Family
- Models (game and rating)
- Grain
- game (pregame: one home win probability and one expected margin per game)
Cohort rule
No cohort rule applies to these stats.
Stats this method computes
| Key | Name | Definition | Unit | Transform |
|---|---|---|---|---|
pregame_wp_home | Pregame home win probability (Pre WP) | The home team's chance of winning, stated before tip from the pregame Elo difference, recent form, rest and home court; an analytics estimate with a published calibration record by season and decile. | probability (0-1) | |
exp_margin | Expected margin (Exp margin) | The expected final margin, home minus away, stated before tip, with an 80 percent interval from the model's training residuals. | points | |
cal_brier | Brier score (Brier) | The mean squared error of a win probability against the result (1 for a home win, 0 otherwise). Lower is better; a constant 0.5 scores 0.25. Graded per game on a slate, per holdout season on the calibration record. | squared probability error | |
cal_log_loss | Log loss | The mean negative log likelihood of the results under the stated win probabilities. Lower is better; it punishes a confident miss harder than Brier does. | nats | |
cal_margin_rmse | Margin RMSE | Root mean squared error of the expected margin against the final margin, home minus away, over a holdout season. | points | |
cal_interval_coverage | 80 percent interval coverage (80% coverage) | The share of final margins that fell inside the stated 80 percent interval. A calibrated interval covers about 80 percent. | share of games | |
cal_max_decile_gap | Max decile gap | The largest absolute gap between the mean predicted home win probability and the observed home win share across the ten equal-count deciles of a season. | probability | |
cal_train_window | Training window (Fit on) | The seasons the holdout season's model was fitted on: every season from the start of the window through the one before the holdout, so no game it scores was in the fit. | seasons | |
cal_hc_brier | Home-court Brier score (HC Brier) | The Brier score of the home-court baseline, which gives every home-floor game the training seasons' home win rate and a neutral-site game 0.5. The model has to beat it in every holdout season. | squared probability error | |
cal_elo_brier | Elo Brier score (Elo Brier) | The Brier score of the elo-winprob model's pregame win probability over the same holdout games, shown for reference. | squared probability error | |
cal_hc_log_loss | Home-court log loss (HC LL) | The log loss of the home-court baseline's win probabilities: the training seasons' home win rate at every home-floor game, 0.5 at a neutral site. | nats | |
cal_hc_margin_rmse | Home-court margin RMSE (HC RMSE) | Root mean squared error of the home-court baseline's margin (the training seasons' mean home margin, 0 at a neutral site) against the final margin, over a holdout season. | points | |
cal_margin_mae | Margin MAE (MAE) | Mean absolute error of the expected margin against the final margin, home minus away, over a holdout season. | points | |
cal_margin_error | Margin error | The expected margin minus the final margin, home minus away, for one graded game. Positive means the home team did worse than expected. | points |
This page carries the definitions only. The full method note, its coverage and its calibration record publish with the data pages. Every value a data page shows will name this method and its version. All methods