Method
In-game win probability
- Method
wp-v0- Version
wp-v0- As of
- 2026-10-08
- Family
- Models (game and rating)
- Grain
- game state (one per elapsed second plus pregame)
Cohort rule
No cohort rule applies to these stats.
Stats this method computes
| Key | Name | Definition | Unit | Transform |
|---|---|---|---|---|
wp_home | Home win probability (Home WP) | The home team's chance of winning after a moment of the game, from the score margin, time left, possession and the pregame Elo prior; an analytics estimate with a published calibration record. | probability (0-1) | |
wp_swing | Win probability swing (WP swing) | The change in home win probability across one game moment: the difference between consecutive points of the wp-v0 series. | probability points |
This page carries the definitions only. The full method note, its coverage and its calibration record publish with the data pages. Every value a data page shows will name this method and its version. All methods